Predator-prey model for analysis of aedes aegypti population dynamics in Cali, Colombia

Abstract

En este trabajo, presentamos un modelo depredador-presa para analizar la dinámica de la población del mosquito Aedes aegypti, al que se atribuye bastante la transmisión del dengue en Cali, Colombia. El modelo describe una interacción de una especie depredadora acuática introducida deliberadamente en el hábitat local de reproducción de mosquitos, donde los estadios inmaduros de Aedes aegypti (huevos, larvas y pupas) ya están presentes y constituyen la población de presas. El modelo también tiene en cuenta la población local de adultos.

In this paper, we introduce a predator-prey model to analyze the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito which is fairly blamed for the transmission of dengue in Cali, Colombia. The model describes an interaction of an aquatic predacious species deliberately introduced into local mosquito breeding habitat, where the Aedes aegypti immature stages (eggs, larvae, and pupae) are already present and constitute the prey population. The model also accounts for local population of adult female mosquitoes (or mature stage) emerging from the breeding site. This population is considered as a target for reduction by deploying an adequate predacious species since only female mosquitoes are held responsible for transmission of dengue and other vector-borne diseases. Having analyzed the model, we have derived the mosquito survival threshold with predation as a function of predator’s biological characteristics. The model’s parameters were adjusted to the average seasonal temperatures of Cali, Colombia and explicit conditions for biological characteristics of prospective efficient predators were established. Numerical simulation with introduction of an efficient predacious species in local mosquito breeding habitats revealed the possibility of eventual mosquito extinction in such localities. Finally, some particular biological species were proposed as potential candidates for efficient predators